:Product: 20020508RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 May 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W19) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf flare occurred at 08/1324 UTC. This region has shown a slight increase in penumbral coverage. It has also acquired a delta magnetic class spot in the trailing portion of the spot cluster. A C1/Sf occurred in Region 9935 (S17W41) at 07/2245 UTC. Optically uncorrelated, minor C-class flares comprised the rest of the days flare activity. New Region 9946 (S08E65) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9934 has the potential of producing M-class flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for isolated active conditions exists for the first day of the forecast, due to a CME passage from the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC. III. Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 May 187 Predicted 09 May-11 May 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 08 May 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 015/015-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01