:Product: 20020509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Several minor
C-class flares occurred today, the only optically correlated flare
was a C1/Sf flare at 09/0800 UTC, from Region 9937 (S08W11).  This
region has undergone a very slight decay in areal coverage of spot
group since yesterday.  Region 9934 (S16W32) has continued to show
growth in penumbral coverage although the delta magnetic spot seen
yesterday is no longer evident.  Remaining spotted regions were
mostly quiescent today.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9934 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The ACE
satellite indicated the passage of a weak shock (presumed to be the
result of the M1 flare at 07/0346 UTC) at approximately 09/0900 UTC.
The Bz energy channel remained north and several periods of
unsettled conditions persisted.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 190
Predicted   10 May-12 May  190/190/195
90 Day Mean        09 May 187
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01