:Product: 20020510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9946 (S06E38)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 10/0039 UTC.
This region produced a couple of smaller C-class flares as well.
Region 9934 (S16W46) has shown a rapid growth in penumbral coverage
which contributed to the reformation of the delta magnetic complex
in the trailing portion of the cluster.  Even so, this region was
limited to minor flares, point brightenings, and surges throughout
the period.  Region 9937 (S08W25) produced several small C-class
flares and has shown a slight growth in the spot coverage since
yesterday.  Two new regions were numbered today:  Region 9947
(N23W46) and Region 9948 (S21E71).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9934 appears quite capable of producing M-class
flare activity
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle
latitudes.  Quiet to active conditions were seen at the high
latitudes.  ACE satellite data suggests a solar sector boundary
crossing may have been responsible for the elevated field activity
at the higher latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 191
Predicted   11 May-13 May  195/200/195
90 Day Mean        10 May 187
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01