:Product: 20020512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9948 (S22E50)
produced a C3.7 flare at 12/0953 UTC.  Region 9934 (S16W72) remains
the largest and most complex region on the disk.  A slight decay in
area coverage was observed in Region 9934.  Region 9937 (S08W50) has
developed a weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in its
trailing spot.  New Region 9951 (N10E68) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9934 and Region 9937 have the potential for
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast period
due to CME effects from the M1/Sf flare on 11/1132 UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 183
Predicted   13 May-15 May  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        12 May 187
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  020/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  012/012-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05