:Product: 20020513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9934 (S16W84)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 13/0101 UTC.  Region 9934 maintains its
beta-gamma-delta configuration as it transits beyond the west limb.
Region 9937 (S07W64) has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta
configuration.  Region 9948 (S22E38) remains relatively stable with
only a slight decrease in area coverage.  SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
revealed a CME off the NE limb at approximately 13/1100 UTC.
Analysis of this event indicates a probable source beyond the NE
limb.  One new region was numbered today:  Region 9952 (S15W22).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events.
Region 9948 also has a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three
hour period of active conditions (00-03 UTC).  Greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels with a
maximum value of 783 pfu at 13/1525 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one of the period due to effects from the M1 event
on 11 May.  Enhanced greater than 2 MeV electrons are possible on
day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    45/40/35
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 172
Predicted   14 May-16 May  175/170/170
90 Day Mean        13 May 186
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    02/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01