:Product: 20020514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.2 flare at 14/1303 UTC. Region 9945
(S04W26) has shown some modest increase in magnetic complexity and
now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  An optically
uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 13/2056 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep.  SOHO/LASCO imagery indicate a possible source
on the SW limb.  An uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
14/0738 UTC as well as a Type IV radio sweep at 14/0747 UTC.
SOHO/LASCO EIT imagery indicates an event beyond the SW limb at
14/0736 UTC as a probable source.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Minor
storm conditions occurred from 03 - 09 UTC.  Active to unsettled
conditions occurred for the remainder of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one of the forecast period, particularly at higher
latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    40/35/35
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 161
Predicted   15 May-17 May  165/165/160
90 Day Mean        14 May 186
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  015/020-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01