:Product: 20020515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9948
(S22E14) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0813 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicates the associated CME is not Earth directed.  At
approximately 15/0900 UTC an eruptive filament lifted off the NW
limb producing a non Earth directed CME.  Region 9945 (S05W39) has
shown gradual growth, polarity mixing in the trailing spots, and a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Three new regions were numbered
today:  Region 9953 (N06W52), Region 9954 (S22E65), and Region 9955
(S14E67).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three
hour period of active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 159
Predicted   16 May-18 May  160/165/160
90 Day Mean        15 May 186
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  020/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01