:Product: 20020516RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9948 (S22E01) produced
a C4 long duration event at 16/0035 UTC which was optically
correlated by the SOHO/LASCO EIT images.  This event had associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a full halo CME.  Another long
duration C5 was observed from this region at 16/0521 UTC which was
also optically correlated by EIT images.  Two new regions were
numbered today as Region 9956 (S08W04) and 9957 (N06E67).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  The potential for an isolated M-class event is
possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME observed from Region 9948 at
16/0035 UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 158
Predicted   17 May-19 May  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        16 May 185
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  007/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  008/008-010/010-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05