:Product: 20020517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  An M1 event was observed
by SOHO/LASCO EIT images at 17/0123 UTC from Region 9957 (N08E58).
Another M1 occurred at 17/0754 UTC with an associated TYPE II radio
sweep.  This event was optically uncorrelated , however, EIT images
suggest the source behind the NE limb.  The largest event was an
M2/Sf at 17/1608 UTC from Region 9954 (S22E40).  Region 9957 is the
most complex region on the disk and has developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  The region was split into two groups today
with the leading spot group numbered as Region 9958 (N04E50).
Another new region was numbered today as Region 9959 (N10E09).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9957 is capable of producing an isolated major
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  An isolated
active period was observed at high latitudes at 17/1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions are possible
on 19 May as a result of the CME from 16 May.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 157
Predicted   18 May-20 May  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        17 May 185
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  010/010-020/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01