:Product: 20020519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several small C-class flares
occurred.  Region 9957 (N08E34) has shown a slight increase in area
and sunspot count and retains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification.  A new region was numbered today as Region 9961
(S22E76).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9957 is capable of producing a major event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Minor storming subsided after 19/0900 UTC to quiet to unsettled
conditions.  This activity correlates well with the full halo CME
observed on 16 May.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 171
Predicted   20 May-22 May  175/180/180
90 Day Mean        19 May 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  015/015-008/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01