:Product: 20020524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a
few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this
region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but
remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no
significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic
configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09)
appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic
configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968
(S13E26) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957,
9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at
24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055
UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are
possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 189
Predicted   25 May-27 May  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        24 May 184
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  052/054
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  015/015-010/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01