:Product: 20020525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels. Occasional
subflares occurred, some of which were associated with C-class X-ray
events. Region 9960 (N14W20) produced a single C-class subflare. It
underwent slight decay, but retained a delta magnetic configuration
within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S21W04) produced a
long-duration C-class subflare at 25/1721 UTC associated with minor
radio emission and a narrow-width CME from the south pole. The CME
did not appear to be Earth-directed. It showed gradual decay with a
persistent, but weakened delta within its intermediate spots. Region
9957 (N10W45) displayed little change during the period. Magnetic
delta configurations were present in the northern and southern
portions of this region, though they appeared to have dissipated and
reformed during the past day or two. New Region 9969 (N09E67)
produced occasional subflares. This region may have a moderate
degree of complexity, though it is too close to the east limb for a
detailed analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9957, 9961, and 9963 appear capable
of isolated M-class flare production. There is a slight chance for
an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active intervals are possible on 26 May due
to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance for a
proton event during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 183
Predicted   26 May-28 May  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        25 May 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  012/010-008/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01