:Product: 20020526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9961
(S21W17) produced a C4/Sf flare at 26/1356 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the period. It appeared to simplify and may have
lost the delta in its intermediate spots. Region 9963 (N14W03)
showed minor spot growth, but remained simply-structured. It
produced a C-class subflare early in the period. Region 9957
(N10W58) was quiet as it continued to gradually decay and simplify.
However, a weak delta magnetic configuration persisted within its
northern spots. Region 9960 (N15W30) was quiet as it slowly decayed
and simplified. New Region 9970 (N05E54) emerged just to the south
of Region 9969 (N09E55). It appeared to be in a growth phase as it
produced occasional subflares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare. There is a slight chance for major flare
activity during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    40/40/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 183
Predicted   27 May-29 May  180/180/175
90 Day Mean        26 May 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  007/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01