:Product: 20020528RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9957 (N12W86)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1635 UTC.  This region remains active
as it transits the west limb.  Three new regions were numbered
today:  Region 9971 (N21E00), Region 9972 (S26E56) and Region 9973
(S16E73).  Region 9973 produced a number of minor C-class flares and
currently is the largest spot on the disk with an area of 420
millionths.  An impressive halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 28/1626 UTC.  However this CME appears to have a backside
source.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9961 and 9963 have the potential for isolated
M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  ACE solar
wind data indicated a continued gradual decay in velocity to
approximately 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 186
Predicted   29 May-31 May  190/195/195
90 Day Mean        28 May 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  022/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  008/008-008/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           12/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01