:Product: 20020529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated long duration C8 flare at 29/0246 UTC.
Region 9972 (S21E44) produced a C8/Sf at 29/0519 UTC and has shown
slight growth.  Region 9961 (S21W59) has simplified in magnetic
complexity while Region 9963 (N16W43) has remained relatively
unchanged since yesterday.  Region 9973 (S16E61) has developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration and a 960 millionths area
coverage.  Two new regions were numbered today:  Region 9974
(N18E58) and Region 9975 (N23E63).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9963 has the potential for low level M-class
activity.  Region 9973 has the potential for low level M-class
activity and a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 185
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun  185/190/190
90 Day Mean        29 May 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  008/015-008/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01