:Product: 20020530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 9973
(S16E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurred
at 30/1725 UTC.  This region also produced several minor subflares,
some of which were associated with Type III radio sweep activity.
Also, it may have been responsible for several optically
uncorrelated C-class flares.  It underwent a very slight decay, but
retained a gamma magnetic configuration within its trailer spots.
Old Region 9957 produced the first M1 x-ray flare today at 30/0532
UTC.  The associated partial halo CME seen on LASCO imagery does not
appear as though it will be geoeffective.  Region 9963 (N16W56)
produced a lone C1/Sf flare during the period.  This region
underwent some decay today, although it retains a weak gamma
magnetic classification in its lead cluster of spots.  New Region
9976 (S10E01) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a
major event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The Advanced
Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite hinted that a weak shock
passage occurred at approximately 30/0030 UTC, with unsettled
conditions following.  This was believed to be from the disappearing
filament on 27 May.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions may be possible through day one of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 180
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        30 May 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  008/010-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01