:Product: 20020531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 May 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  The largest
flare during the period was an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at
31/0016 UTC.  The source region, based on EIT/LASCO imagery, is
believed to originate from an area just behind the east limb in the
proximity of newly numbered Region 9979 (S31E77).  A long duration
C3 x-ray flare that occurred 31/0321 UTC had an associated Type II
radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 498 km/s.  The
source region for this event appears to have originated from the
northwest limb, again, based on EIT/LASCO imagery.  Region 9973
(S16E34) produced several minor C-class flares and retains a
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic structure to the spot group.
Regions 9977 (S20W41) and 9978 (S20E62) were also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.  Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a
major flare event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 182
Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        31 May 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  005/008-005/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01