:Product: 20020601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Two impulsive M-class
events occurred during the period.  The first was an M1/1n flare
from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC.  This event was
accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio
sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s).  Region 9973
retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also
appears relatively stable.  Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare
from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC.  This
region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into
better view on the visible disk.  Newly numbered Region 9980
(S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured
spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days.  A chance for an
isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the
forecast period.  There is a chance for isolated active conditions
by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity
reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section
1A above).
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 179
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  175/170/170
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  005/008-008/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01