:Product: 20020602RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of
an M-class event late in the period.  Region 9979 (S30E50) produced
an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC.  The optical
enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but
preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity.  This event also
produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep
(estimated velocity 1079 km/s).  Several C-class events also
occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf
event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323
km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps.  Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an
impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC.  A long duration C3.2 x-ray
enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical
activity reports.  Three new regions came into view on the east limb
and were numbered today:  9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983
(N24E72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days.  A small chance
for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels.  A rising trend
in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association
with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the
sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods
throughout the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the
next two days.  Some combined effects from the numerous solar events
of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period.  Conditions
are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 175
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 183
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01