:Product: 20020603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several weak, impulsive
C-class events were scattered throughout the period.  Region 9973
(S16W03) is still relatively large in spot count and areal coverage,
but appears to be losing some magnetic complexity and has been
mostly quiescent through the period.  Region 9978 (S20E21) has
increased somewhat in size and spot count, and along with Region
9979 (S28E36), is trending toward greater magnetic complexity.  Most
other active regions on the visible disk remain little changed.  New
Region 9984 (N19E13) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated high-latitude active period observed during 02/2100-2400
UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled, with some active and isolated minor
storm periods possible for the first day of the forecast period.
Thereafter, conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 170
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  020/020-012/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01