:Product: 20020604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  The largest
event of the period was a C2/Sf from Region 9978 (S20E07) at 04/1614
UTC.  SOHO-EIT imagery revealed an eruptive prominence off the
southwest limb during 03/2200 - 04/0100 UTC, although no significant
x-ray enhancement was observed in association with this event.  New
Region 9985 (N17E29) emerged on the visible disk and was numbered
today, along with new Region 9986 (N03E72) which rotated into view
from the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mainly low, with a chance for isolated M-class events, and an
associated slight increase in proton flare probabilities as the
larger active regions on the visible disk rotate through
geoeffective heliographic longitudes during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active periods
corresponded primarily with sustained periods of southward IMF
orientation.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mainly unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period, trending toward mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
thereafter.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 170
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  165/165/170
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  016/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01