:Product: 20020605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C3  at 05/0945 UTC. This x-ray flare seems
to be related to activity in Region 9979 (S30E11) and was followed
by a faint Earth-directed CME. Region 9973 (S16E29) remains the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk. It is slowly decaying
and has not produced significant activity in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9973 appears to be the most likely candidate for
M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Increased activity may
occur on 07 to 08  June in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 159
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-015/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01