:Product: 20020606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few B and C-class flares
occurred. The largest was a C2/1F flare at 06/1703 UTC in Region
9975 (N22W45). Region 9973 (S15W43) remains the largest sunspot
group on the disk but has not produced significant activity. New
Regions 9987 (S16E24) and 9988 (S14E04) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
A small chance of an isolated M-class flare in 9973 remains.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active over the next 48 hours in response to
a CME that occurred on 05 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 155
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01