:Product: 20020607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small flares
occurred. Region 9973 (S15W56) continues to decay. Region 9987
(S16E11) is growing. New Regions 9989 (S33W31), 9990 (S23E19), and
9991 (S22E69) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may be
elevated on 08 June due to a CME that occurred on 05 June.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 158
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  010/012-008/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01