:Product: 20020608RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small flares
occurred. Region 9987 (S15W02) continued to grow, increasing sunspot
number and magnetic complexity. New Region 9992 (S20E74) rotated
onto the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 is the most likely source of flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A shock was observed at
the NASA ACE spacecraft at 08/1028 UTC and was followed by a Sudden
Impulse at ground magnetometers (16nT at Boulder) at 08/1141 UTC.
This activity is believed to be related to the CME that occurred on
05 June. The observed Afr index for 07 June reported in Part V is
estimated from Boulder observations.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled by 09
June.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jun 155
Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        08 Jun 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  008/012-008/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01