:Product: 20020609RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A lone C1 x-ray flare was the
highlight of the flare activity during the period.  It went
optically uncorrelated and occurred at 09/1009 UTC.  Region 9987
(S15W16) showed a slight increase in sunspot numbers.  The remainder
of the numbered regions showed very little (if any) modification
throughout the period.  New Regions 9993 (N06W20) and 9994 (N10E59)
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9987 remains the most likely source for flare
production.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 157
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  155/150/145
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01