:Product: 20020610RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Jun 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Two optically uncorrelated C1 x-ray flares comprised the flare activity for the period. Region 9987 (S15W29) grew in magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage today. Even so, several point brightenings and intermittent dark surging were all that kept this region from being quiescent during the past 24 hours. Region 9985 (N18W51) showed a continued decay in spot count and magnetic complexity. Most other active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New Region 9995 (N10W01) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. A coronal hole may have been responsible for the active conditions that began near mid-period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jun 152 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 181 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/010-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01