:Product: 20020611RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Only a few small
C-class flares occurred, which were mostly associated with Region
9987 (S15W43).  This region has continued to show slow growth in
magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage.  An eruptive prominence
was observed on the west limb at 11/1125 UTC.  SOHO/LASCO depicted a
weak CME that does not appear to be earth directed.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9987 remains capable of producing isolated low
level M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jun 148
Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  145/150/160
90 Day Mean        11 Jun 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  005/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  005/010-005/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01