:Product: 20020612RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Optically verified
using EIT imagery, Region 9987 (S15W56) produced a C1 x-ray flare at
12/0903 UTC.  This region underwent slight decay today.  Less
penumbral coverage seen in trailing cluster of spots, although
region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.
Region 9991 (S22E04) showed slight growth in penumbral coverage
during the period.  Other than occasional point brightening and
minor dark surging, this region was stable through the period.  A
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 450 km/s
occurred at 12/0145 UTC.  Source region of the sweep is believed to
have originated from beyond the northeast limb of the visible disk.
Regions 9996 (S27E46), 9997 (N08E73), and 9998 (N15E74) were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9987 remains capable of producing an isolated
low level M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.  Day three of
the forecast period may experience isolated active conditions in
response to a southern hemispheric high speed stream coronal hole
becoming favorably positioned.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 142
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  145/145/155
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  005/008-006/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.