:Product: 20020613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9991 (S20W09)
produced a C1.5/Sf flare at 12/2119 UTC with associated discrete
frequency radio bursts.  Region 9987 (S15W71) continues its gradual
decay and has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.  The only
other significant disk activity was a five degree disappearing
filament at S14E18.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 9987 and Region 9991 have a slight chance of
producing low level M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day two of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 133
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/008-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PLAIN:
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.