:Product: 20020614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Three new regions
were numbered today:  Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50),
and Region 1 (N20E70).  Please refer to the attached plain message
for a region numbering discussion.  Region 9987 (S16W86) produced a
C1 flare at 14/1020 UTC.  Region 9991(S21W21) has remained
relatively stable.  New Region 1 has shown some surging but due its
limb proximity prevents a complete analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 and 9991 have the potential of C- and low level M-class
events.  Old Region 9963 (N17, L= 318) is due to return on day two
of the forecast period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    20/25/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 131
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  135/140/145
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PlAIN:
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of region numbers 10000 and higher.