:Product: 20020615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC.  Lesser C- and
B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1
(N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63).  Region 9997
(N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single
beta-class group of penless spots.  Other regions that emerged on
the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and
Region 4 (S16E10).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  A small chance for an isolated moderate flare
exists for the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet.  One isolated unsettled
period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 135
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.