:Product: 20020616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The most notable event of the
period was a long duration C1.0 flare at 16/0814 UTC.  There were no
optical reports associated with this event, but a CME was evident in
LASCO imagery just following the flare, from a presumed source
behind the northeast limb, near N35.  Active prominences have been
visible in H-alpha imagery in this area for the past 24 hours.
Other activity included an optically uncorrelated C1.4 flare at
16/0332 UTC.  B-class activity was observed in Region 9991 (S21W47)
and Region 3 (N00E49).  New Region 5 (N13E74) rotated into view and
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
mostly low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    20/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 137
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.