:Product: 20020617RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Only minor C-class events
were observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Unsettled to active conditions
are possible on 19-20 June due to a well positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jun 143
Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        17 Jun 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  005/008-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of region numbers 10000 and higher.