:Product: 20020619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A C5 event occurred at
19/1015 UTC.  The LASCO/EIT imagery suggest the source of the event
to be Region 9991 (S22W85).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions.  Minor
storm conditions were observed at high latitudes.  This activity is
attributed to a well positioned coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible for June 20 with the coronal hole passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 146
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  015/018-010/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region
number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.