:Product: 20020620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Only two low C-class
events were observed during the period.  The largest region on the
visible disk is Region 8 (S09E52).  This region is a DKO beta group
which has shown modest growth during the period with a white light
area of 480 millionths.  A new region was numbered today as Region 9
(S19W66).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with one
period of active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 145
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  150/155/155
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region
number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.