:Product: 20020621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours with
the occurrence of just two C-class flares. The first of these was a
C1 at 0506 UTC that appears to be associated with activity just
beyond the southwest limb. The second C-flare was a C1 at 2020 UTC:
at the time of forecast issue there was not data available to
determine a source region. Region 8 (S08E39) continues to be the
largest group on the disk but was stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected to prevail for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 140
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  145/145/150
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  007/008-010/010-007/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05