:Product: 20020622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Yesterday's C1 flare at 21/2020 UTC was associated with activity
behind the Southwest limb and with a limb CME. The CME does not
appear to have any earthward component. The only C-class event
during the past 24 hours was a C2/Sf at 0236 UTC from Region 5
(N13E00). This group showed some moderate growth during the past 24
hours. Region 8 (S09E26) remains the largest on the disk but was
quiet and stable. New regions 10 (S12E00) and 11 (S12E62) were
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 142
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  010/012-007/010-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01