:Product: 20020623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  While being
void of spots for the past several days, Region 9997 (S17W72)
managed to produced an M1/2f flare at 23/0255 UTC.  A few minor
discrete radio bursts accompanied the flare.  Region 5 (N13W13)
produced a C1/1n flare at 23/0824 UTC and a B7/Sf flare at 23/1822
UTC.  No appreciable changes seen in this region today.  Region 8
(S09E13) remains the largest region on the disk but has continued to
show quiescent characteristics.  New Regions 12 (N19E20), 13
(N04E07), and 14 (S18E50) were assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to predominantly
unsettled conditions.  The Bz component of the IMF remained
southward throughout most of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 143
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  007/012-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region
number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.