:Product: 20020624RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only C-flare was a C1 at 1606 UTC. The optical source was
not obvious, but there were some slightly enhanced loops visible in
EIT 195 from Region 5 (N14W29). New Region 15 (S27E39) emerged and
was assigned today. A 13 degree filament near N40W06 disappeared
sometime between 0112 UTC and 1345 UTC. A CME erupted from the west
limb at 24/0054 UTC but did not have any earthward component. Region
8 (S10W01) continues to be the largest region on the disk and
appeared to be growing and developing some magnetic complexity
during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a very slight chance for moderate
activity from Region 8.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jun 150
Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  150/150/145
90 Day Mean        24 Jun 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun  006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned
on June 14. Space Weather operations is going
through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,
9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text
discussions of the active regions will ignore the
leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region
number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However,
the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as
well as the USAF and ISES data exchange codes will
preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using
four digits is for operational purposes only. For
historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999
will be understood to be in a series of region numbers
10000 and higher.