:Product: 20020625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred, one of which was associated with an
optical subflare from Region 8 (S11W15). Region 8 showed no
significant changes during the period with minor mixed polarities
present within the spots just south of the dominant, asymmetric
leader spot. Region 5 (N11W44) showed gradual loss of spots and
area. Decay was also noted in Region 11 (S12E23). No significant
changes were noted in the remaining regions including newly numbered
Region 16 (S15E71).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 145
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 154
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01