:Product: 20020626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels. A long-duration
C1 X-ray flare occurred at 26/0820 UTC associated with a prominence
eruption on the northeast limb near NE17. A coronal mass ejection
was also associated with the eruption, but did not appear to have an
Earthward component. Region 8 (S12W29) showed a minor degree of
magnetic complexity, but was stable with no significant changes. The
remaining regions were stable and simply-structured. Note: yesterday's
90-day mean 10.7 cm flux value of 154 was incorrect. The correct value
was 175.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 144
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  007/008-007/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01