:Product: 20020627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Isolated
B-class X-ray flares occurred, most of which were optically
uncorrelated. Minor decay was observed in Region 8 (S12W41), which
was the source for a B-class X-ray flare late in the period. Region
5 (N12W72) was also the source for an isolated B-class subflare. It
remained simply-structured as it approached the west limb. Region 11
(S11W05) showed minor decay and remained a simple bipole. The
remaining active regions were stable and simply-structured. New
Region 17 (S19E14) emerged during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from
Regions 8 and 11.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 139
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01