:Product: 20020630RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Jun 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The highlight of the period was a very long duration, C2 X-ray event that began around 0915Z, peaked at 1257Z, and ended at 1625Z. This event was associated with an impressive coronal mass ejection off the SE limb, near Region 19 (S18E61). This event followed another CME associated with a filament eruption from near S40W10. Neither CME appears earthbound. Region 19 is a moderately complex spot group with a white light area of over 400 millionths. Region 17 (S19W23) has also increased in size and appears to have developed some magnetic complexity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 17 and 19. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetical field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high latitude active periods. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods during local nighttime hours. III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 147 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 010/010-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01