:Product: 20020702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W51)
produced an M1/1f flare at 02/2031Z. This region grew quite
significantly in the last 24 hours, tripling in white light size to
over 420 millionths in a beta-gamma configuration. Region 19
(S18E34) has decayed somewhat, but continues to produce occasional
minor C-class flares. New Region 20 (N01E63) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels. Regions 17 and 19 have potential to
produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods at high latitudes through day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 149
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  010/010-008/008-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01