:Product: 20020703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 17 (S18W63) produced an
X1/1B flare at 03/0213 UTC. There was also an M5 flare at 03/2010
UTC apparently in Region 17 as well, although the optical class is
currently uncertain. Region 19 (S18E20) also produced a number of
flares, the largest being a C7/1N at 03/1154 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 17 and 19. Region
17 is the most likely source of a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 173
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  160/150/145
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  005/008-005/008-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01