:Product: 20020704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W76)
produced the largest flare of the past 24 hours, an M1/Sf at 04/0734
UTC, as well as several C-class subflares throughout the day. This
area appears to be decaying as it approaches the west limb. Region
19 (S17E07) also produced C-class activity and has increased
slightly in magnetic complexity. New Region 25 (S18E75) rotated
around the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 17 and 19.
Region 17 remains the most likely to produce a major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a general increase in
activity levels over the next three days due to a coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    60/50/40
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 146
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  140/135/130
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  010/008-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01