:Product: 20020705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 17 (S18W89)
produced an M3/Sf flare at 05/1326 UTC. This flare was associated
with a Type II/IV radio sweep and an apparent CME directed off the
southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S18W08) produced a C6/Sf flare at
05/1556 UTC. This region, as well as Region 21 (S29W21), also
produced a number of other subflares. New Region 26 (N24W58) emerged
on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 17 and 19 remain the most likely source of M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to influence
activity levels over the next few days.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    50/40/40
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 139
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  012/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01