:Product: 20020706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. The largest flare of the
past day was an M1 at 06/0342 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, SOHO EIT data suggests that the source was Region 17
from just behind the southwest solar limb. Region 19 (S17W21)
produced a C6/1N flare at 06/0938 UTC. This sunspot group appears to
have diminished slightly in complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 19 remains capable of C-class activity. An
isolated M-class flare in this region is also possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. ACE satellite data
confirms that a high-speed coronal hole stream is responsible for
the activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active as the coronal hole disturbance
continues.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 134
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  132/132/130
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  015/015-015/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01