:Product: 20020707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A long duration M1.0
flare occurred during 07/1114-1143-1317 UTC.  Imagery from
SOHO/LASCO revealed a fast partial halo CME off the southwest limb
in association with this event, possibly from old Region 17 (S18,
L=235) behind the west limb.  This event also caused an enhancement
in energetic protons (see section IIA below).  Other activity
included a multi-peak C-class event with maximum flux of C3.5 at
07/0401 UTC.  H-alpha imagery from the IPS Culgoora observatory
revealed an active prominence on the southwest limb as well as plage
brightening in Region 19 (S19W32) in association with this event.
Another event of interest occurred at about 07/1700 UTC, with a
large, 35-degree filament eruption centered near N11W49, which also
produced a CME visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery.  New Region 27
(S15E26) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 19 remains a potential source of M-class flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one
isolated active period observed at Boulder during 07/1500-1800 UTC.
Coronal hole effects appeared to wane throughout the day.  A 10 MeV
proton event began at 07/1830 UTC, due to enhanced flux following
the LDE discussed in section 1A above, and remains in progress.
Maximum flux observed thus far was 22 pfu at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods
are possible during the next 3 days, in response to earlier CME
activity from Region 19 as well as from the filament eruption and
other flare activity observed today.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     35/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 137
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul  132/130/130
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/015-012/012-012/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01